EV = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Positive EV means the strategy is profitable long-term even with a sub-50% win rate.
Total gross wins divided by total gross losses. Above 1.5 is solid. Above 2.0 is excellent. Below 1.0 means you're losing money overall.
Full Kelly gives the mathematically maximum growth rate but causes extreme drawdowns. Half Kelly (÷2) is the practical standard — most professional traders cap risk at 1–2% regardless.
Once you know your win rate and risk:reward, take it further: size positions with the Kelly Criterion calculator, check your blow-up odds with the risk of ruin calculator, convert risk into an exact share count with the position size calculator, or stress-test the whole strategy in the Monte Carlo simulator.
A 60% win rate is good if your average win is at least as large as your average loss — that combination produces solid positive expectancy. But a 60% win rate with winners half the size of losers is barely break-even. Win rate is only meaningful next to the risk:reward ratio, which is exactly what this calculator combines into expected value and profit factor.
The break-even win rate at 1:2 (risking $1 to make $2) is 33.3%. Anything above that is profitable before costs — a realistic 40–45% win rate at 1:2 is a genuinely strong strategy. This is why many professional trend traders are profitable while losing more than half their trades.
Yes, easily — provided your winners are bigger than your losers. At a 40% win rate, break-even requires a 1.5:1 payoff ratio; anything better makes money. A 40% win rate with 2:1 winners yields +0.20R per trade, meaning about 20 cents of profit per dollar risked, per trade, over the long run.
Profit factor is gross profits divided by gross losses. Above 1.5 is solid, above 2.0 is excellent, and below 1.0 means the strategy loses money. Between 1.0 and 1.25 is fragile territory — normal statistical variance and trading costs can flip it negative.
Divide winning trades by total trades and multiply by 100: 55 winners out of 100 trades is a 55% win rate. Count break-even trades in the total but not as winners. For a meaningful number, use at least 100 trades — smaller samples swing wildly by pure chance.